Дэвид Дженкинс, руководитель отдела госитничной недвижимости, ООО «Кушман энд Вэйкфилд».
The main theme for 2011 has been recovery. 2009 and 2010 were difficult years for hotel market. In 2011 there has been a recovery in Moscow, St. Petersburg and, actually, across the regions. This was the theme well received and everybody was very happy to see a very positive outlook for the year, both in occupancy of the hotels and in rate. We also saw some new hotels opening this year. We have InterContinental hotel, that opened on Tverskaya, near Mayakovskaya, which is a very significant opening for the city. And this month we will see the opening of the second Marriott Courtyard in Moscow, which is again a very underdeveloped market segment. And we could see the Paveletskaya hotel market developing, now with the fast train to Domodedovo. The Ibis hotel is there, Courtyard opening. This area is developing as a very strong micro region. Same thing with Bellaruskaya. Bellaruskaya has seen earlier in the year opening of Radisson Blue hotel and that really helps this area as well with a lot of office there, a lot of corporate demand and of course there is a fact train to Sheremetevo. You began to see now clever developments with hotel opening where demand is and where people want to be staying. So that’s been very positive trend for the year. We also seen the sale of Rizt Carlton earlier in the year, and it’s of course a very important event. And moving towards the end of this year we have an auction of National hotel. It is very important sale of very important historical building in Moscow. So there were transactions this year, there was positive trend in the market and there has been a very significant openings of hotels this year. So all and all 2011 has been very active year.
Paveletskaya and Belaruskaya mid markets
In areas like Belaruskaya and Paveletskaya receiving new hotels and those are areas where guests want to live, because they flying into Moscow, they use the good fast train connections, they are walking to their hotel, they are doing their business, they are going back to the airport and they are very satisfied. It’s like Paddington in London. If you fly to London, you take Heathrow express to Paddington. There are a lot of hotels in Paddinton, that are the busiest hotels in London. And actually more expensive. If you stay at a Novotel at Paddington, it is much more expensive that another Novotel in another part of London. Because it does not have the proximity to the fast train. And the same is happening here. You see hotels that has the same proximity, enable to capitalize on their proximity to the fast train and that will continue to develop.
Mid market segment
The mid Market and economy category is very much underserved in Moscow. I said before, that there are not enough economy hotels in Moscow of the branded nature. We have the Ibis hotel which is doing a great business at Pavelezkaya. But the pipeline is very strong, there are a lot of such hotels in the pipeline in next five to seven years we will see a lot more hotels like Ibis, like Hampton by Hilton, MarriottCouryard, HolidayInn - midmarket, economy hotels, that are branded and coming to the market to satisfy the desires of clients to have affordable, branded accommodation. This is a very strong brand, but on the same time people are not stopping developing 5 star hotels. There is a niche in the market for a good life style hotels , there is a niche for a good quality luxury product. There are being built - there are Mandarin Oriental being built, there is Fermount announce that there is a Movenpick hotel, there are a lot of exiting new coming as well at the top segment and a lot of good solid hotels coming in the mid-market.
This year we expect RepRar in Moscow to finish about 10-20% up on last year, which is an excellent result and this is a very good result. This gives us hope for the next year . If hotels will keep their occupancy high, then they will be able to push rents and what we call yielding. If you and your competitors are busy all the time, than you can all start to push your rents high. But as not all hotels are busy and a lot of new hotels opening, the price can not grow sufficiently. But I still think that in 2012 we will see prices increasing in certain categories. I think that luxury hotel has room for growth. This year for example the luxury is growing only about 2-3% in rate and about 3% in occupancy, so they had a relatively quite year and stable growth. I think that next year the luxury segment could do a little bit better. Political and economic instability that of course impact hotels. But the trend is strong and growth is there. There are still not enough hotels, there are still people wanting to do business here, so as long as this continue we could certainly expect to see about 8 to 10% RepRar growth next year, with some segments better or worth then others.